should contact the office to be seen end of day.
WHAT IS OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE COURSE OF COVID?
At this point in time the are many uncertainties about the course of COVID in the US and in Arizona, but I can provide some educated speculation:
1. The virus has increased with reopening in ARIZONA but is declining in many other states. Current peak in ARIZONA is projected in mid-July, although this is subject to change and we will update you weekly on these expectations.
2. In September and into the fall and winter we are likely to see a recurrence of infection broadly in the state, country, and world. More significant restrictions will become necessary at that time.
3. Using increased testing (swabs and blood work) we will be able to tune plans more finely for physical distancing in different locations based on results of the presence of infection and its frequency areas. This will allow for waxing and waning restrictions in local areas based on data from testing and mathematical projections.
4. If OPENING UP is to be safe, we all must maintain distancing, wears masks, not go out if sick, and wash our hands repeatedly.
5. Nature is immunizing us more generally, and when we have blood work to confirm previous infection, we will find a great number of asymptomatic individuals having been infected and this will provide ‘herd immunity’ which will be very helpful as time goes on.
6. Antiviral medications will be found through clinical studies and we are likely to see effective treatments made available within 6 months. Remdesivir (Gilead Pharmaceuticals) has already demonstrated some effectiveness in highly ill patients and it is anticipated it will be effective in more mildly symptomatic patients. Remdesivir is available currently at Honor Health for patients who require treatment. Additional studies are demonstrating more effectiveness. Production is being ramped up and it will become more generally available. Additional competing compounds are under development as well and a recent study of other antivirals compounds (a combination of 2 antivirals + interferon) was just shown to reduce duration of infection. Unfortunately, a recent large study of Hydroxychloroquine failed to show positive effects.
7. Immunizations will be developed, but will take 12-18 months to come ‘online’
8. This paper is an excellent summary about expectations for the future of COVID. There are many unknowns, but this paper is sophisticated and approachable for those who want an expert perspective https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf
9. This paper is a great summary of information for risks to consider in public spaces: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them